The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began on June 1st, and as we pass the halfway mark of the month, the basin has remained remarkably quiet. While this calm might offer a temporary sense of relief, experts continue to urge preparedness, especially as the Eastern Pacific is already showing signs of significant activity.
A Dormant Atlantic: Why the Quiet Start?
As of mid-June, there have been no named storms, tropical depressions, or even significant areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin. This quiet start is largely attributed to:
- Saharan Dust Outbreaks: Dust plumes from the Sahara Desert often move across the Atlantic in the early season. This dust not only reduces sunlight (slightly cooling sea surface temperatures) but, more importantly, injects very dry air into the atmosphere. Dry air is detrimental to tropical cyclone development as it inhibits the moist, unstable environment needed for storms to form and strengthen.
- Persistent Wind Shear: While the overall seasonal forecast suggests reduced wind shear later in the season due to ENSO-neutral conditions, early June patterns can still feature periods of unfavorable wind shear in areas where development might typically occur.
Experts from NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) have maintained their predictions for an above-average season overall. This quiet start is not necessarily an indicator of what the entire season will hold, as the peak activity typically occurs from mid-August through October. The factors driving the above-average forecast (warm Atlantic waters, ENSO-neutrality, etc.) are still in place for the later months.
(Source: NOAA, CSU June 11, 2025 Updates, AccuWeather)
Eastern Pacific: A Contrasting Picture
In stark contrast to the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific basin has been notably active. As of June 12th:
- Tropical Storm Alvin: Formed on May 28th, ahead of its historical average, though it dissipated quickly.
- Tropical Storm Barbara: Named on June 4th, later strengthening to a hurricane before weakening. It was the first hurricane or typhoon in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
- Tropical Storm Cosme: Formed on June 6th, also well ahead of its historical average, and has since degraded.
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E: Already being monitored, with potential for further development off the coast of Mexico.
This flurry of activity in the Eastern Pacific is ahead of schedule and highlights how different ocean basins can behave. While these storms are far from the US mainland, their development can sometimes have subtle downstream atmospheric effects.
(Source: AccuWeather, National Hurricane Center)
What This Means for TropicalSpin Readers
The current tranquility in the Atlantic should not lead to complacency. It’s a reminder that:
- Early season activity is not always indicative of the full season’s potential. The most active part of the season is still ahead.
- Preparedness remains paramount. This quiet time is a valuable window to finalize your hurricane plan, restock your emergency kit, and review safety procedures. Don’t wait for a named storm to be on the map before taking action.
- Stay Informed: Continue to monitor TropicalSpin for the latest updates, shifts in weather patterns, and expert analysis.
While the Atlantic sleeps, the Pacific is already stirring. TropicalSpin will keep a vigilant eye on both.
References:
- AccuWeather. (June 12, 2025). Eastern Pacific to churn out more tropical storms before Atlantic activity begins.
- Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project. (June 11, 2025). EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2025.
- National Hurricane Center (NHC) / NOAA. (Current Tropical Weather Outlooks).
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (May 22, 2025). NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
